Predicting the potential for zoonotic transmission and host associations for novel viruses.

Host-virus associations have co-evolved under ecological and evolutionary selection pressures that shape cross-species transmission and spillover to humans. Observed virus-host associations provide relevant context for newly discovered wildlife viruses to assess knowledge gaps in host-range and estimate pathways for potential human infection. Using models to predict virus-host networks, we predicted the likelihood of humans as hosts for 513 newly discovered viruses detected by large-scale wildlife surveillance at high-risk animal-human interfaces in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Predictions indicated that novel coronaviruses are likely to infect a greater number of host species than viruses from other families. Our models further characterize novel viruses through prioritization scores and directly inform surveillance targets to identify host ranges for newly discovered viruses.

Global shifts in mammalian population trends reveal key predictors of virus spillover risk.

Emerging infectious diseases in humans are frequently caused by pathogens originating from animal hosts, and zoonotic disease outbreaks present a major challenge to global health. To investigate drivers of virus spillover, we evaluated the number of viruses mammalian species have shared with humans. We discovered that the number of zoonotic viruses detected in mammalian species scales positively with global species abundance, suggesting that virus transmission risk has been highest from animal species that have increased in abundance and even expanded their range by adapting to human-dominated landscapes. Domesticated species, primates and bats were identified as having more zoonotic viruses than other species. Among threatened wildlife species, those with population reductions owing to exploitation and loss of habitat shared more viruses with humans. Exploitation of wildlife through hunting and trade facilitates close contact between wildlife and humans, and our findings provide further evidence that exploitation, as well as anthropogenic activities that have caused losses in wildlife habitat quality, have increased opportunities for animal-human interactions and facilitated zoonotic disease transmission. Our study provides new evidence for assessing spillover risk from mammalian species and highlights convergent processes whereby the causes of wildlife population declines have facilitated the transmission of animal viruses to humans.

Predicting wildlife reservoirs and global vulnerability to zoonotic Flaviviruses.

Flaviviruses continue to cause globally relevant epidemics and have emerged or re-emerged in regions that were previously unaffected. Factors determining emergence of flaviviruses and continuing circulation in sylvatic cycles are incompletely understood. Here we identify potential sylvatic reservoirs of flaviviruses and characterize the macro-ecological traits common to known wildlife hosts to predict the risk of sylvatic flavivirus transmission among wildlife and identify regions that could be vulnerable to outbreaks. We evaluate variability in wildlife hosts for zoonotic flaviviruses and find that flaviviruses group together in distinct clusters with similar hosts. Models incorporating ecological and climatic variables as well as life history traits shared by flaviviruses predict new host species with similar host characteristics. The combination of vector distribution data with models for flavivirus hosts allows for prediction of  global vulnerability to flaviviruses and provides potential targets for disease surveillance in animals and humans.